July 9, 2025- Copper shipments into the United States are expected to accelerate in the coming weeks in a final scramble to get metal across the border before U.S. President Donald Trump’s higher than expected 50% tariff on imported copper takes effect.
Trump announced the copper tariff on Tuesday, sending U.S. Comex copper futures up more than 12% to a record high. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the levy is likely to be in place by August 1.
The tariffs are designed to spark a revival of the U.S. copper industry, but analysts warn that it would take years if not decades to gear up production.
In the meantime, the deadline introduces an expiry date on a months-old playbook, with traders pulling metal out of warehouses around the world and shipping it to the U.S. to cash in on a premium that was hovering around 27% or $2,600 a metric ton on Wednesday.
With roughly three weeks left, analysts and traders said only cargoes already on the water or coming from Latin America were likely to make it in time.
“Shipments already on route to the U.S. will likely try to get there still, meaning the ex-U.S. markets shouldn’t face excess cargoes immediately. But it will be more challenging to ship any extra cargoes in a three-week window,” Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note.
Chilean producers with Chinese contracts are likely to step up a practice of redirecting Comex-eligible stock to the U.S. and sending other brands to China instead, said one Chinese copper trader, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The final rush could mean continued tightness outside the U.S. during a sprint to the tariff deadline, said analysts and traders, after which the gravitational pull of the U.S. will ease, freeing up supplies elsewhere.
The U.S. has imported nearly a year’s worth of copper in the past six months, according to analysts at J.P. Morgan, who say imports will fall for months after the tariffs take effect as users work through stockpiles.
Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange both dipped more than 1% in the hours after Trump’s announcement.
Citi forecasts copper prices outside the U.S. will pull back to $8,800 a ton over the next three months. Benchmark LME copper stood at about $9,650 a ton on Wednesday afternoon.
Investors were awaiting details on what types of copper would be affected, including as copper scrap, potentially curbing substantial U.S. exports of such material.
“U.S. exports around 550,000-600,000 tons a year of copper in scrap and the loss of this would present a material negative supply shock to the global market,” Macquarie analysts said.
Analysts were also musing whether Trump would allow any carve-outs for copper as he has done for steel.
A deal struck in May between Washington and London, for instance, cut tariffs on British steel exports to the U.S. to zero from what was then 25%. Trump has since raised tariffs on all other steel imports to 50%.
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